Ben Brown relies on the knuckle curveball for his strikeouts, along with the fastball, and his teammate Colin Rea found success (like many other starters) using breaking pitches against this lineup. Rea struck out eight batters yesterday in just five innings, while also allowing seven hits, three walks and six runs, and Ben Brown has a better breaking ball. The whiff rate is down on the knuckle curve over over last year but it's still at 40% and racked up 38 strikeouts in less than 50 innings. The Reds struggle with breaking pitches, and he's been over the 5.5 line in three straight starts. Potentially pitching for his roster spot, I think he will be motivated and look for the swing and miss.

The first two games of this series totaled 19 and 10 runs, and I bet the finale to go Over as well. Reds starter Nick Lodolo is facing the top offense in baseball and has served up five homers in just 21.1 innings at Great American Ball Park. Cubs starter Ben Brown has been lit up in two of his past five starts and has allowed a 45.9 percent hard-hit rate. Look for the Over to improve to 17-9 in Cubs' road games.