Hunter Greene makes his first start in over two weeks after a groin injury and faces one of the best hitting teams on the road this season, hitting .273. Before his injury, Greene owned a 1.44 home ERA. The Reds have really struggled against lefties, hitting .206 on the year and just faced two lefties against Pittsburgh and only scored a combined two runs in two games. Matthew Boyd has yet to win a road game thus far but owns a sub-three road ERA. Even if Greene gets into trouble, he’s back by the 3rd bets bullpen in the NL, 3.30 ERA.

Hunter Greene returns to the mound for the Reds but I have my eye on the opposing starting pitcher. Matthew Boyd has gone over this strikeout total in four straight starts and he's running a swinging strike rate around 11%, with three pitches in double digits for strikeouts over 50 innings. At 5.5 I'm going to back the over against a Reds team that's quietly striking out 25% of the time against left handed pitchers.

FanDuel. After a run of very difficult matchups to start this season, Matt Boyd has cleared this strikeout total in each of his last four appearances. Overall, he’s accrued 53 punch outs in 51.1 innings - and finally fully healthy this season, he’s pitching deep into ballgames. I like the matchup today, as the Reds struggle against left handed pitching, with a 24.6% strikeout rate and only a .623 OPS (both are ninth worst in baseball).