Riley Greene is in a strong spot against Jose Berrios, a pitcher who has allowed the most home runs in the majors since 2022, with a large number of those coming against left-handed hitters. Greene has been swinging a hot bat, with three home runs in his last eight games and back-to-back games with a homer before going hitless yesterday. He's crushed right-handed pitching this season, hitting 10 of his 11 home runs against them and posting a .963 OPS—over 400 points higher than his mark against lefties. Although he's 0-for-6 in his career against Berrios, the underlying splits suggest this is a prime opportunity. We value his HR line at +350, so +470 offers solid upside.

Detroit has an AL-best 30-16 record, winning most of tis series, and suspect they can get another of those in Toronto. Saturday's 2-1 loss was bitter, but the rubber match can be a different story behind impressive rookie Jackson Jobe, whose only rough outing can be excused for his first appearance at Denver (though the Tigers still won). Indeed, Detroit has won all seven of his starts, not a bad track record into mid-May, and wondering if the wrong team might be favored as Blue Jay starter Jose Berrios was hit hard by the Rays in his last start, allowing five runs and five hits in his last start on Tuesday in what turned into an 11-9 Toronto loss. Play Tigers on Money Line