Gunnar Henderson is on a tear, collecting 9 hits and 3 home runs over his last 4 games. He's had success against today's opposing pitcher, Chris Paddack, going 3-for-4 with a homer in their previous matchups. While Paddack has fared better against lefties this season, Henderson is crushing right-handed pitching with a .337 average and a 1.017 OPS. He's also thriving at home, batting .349 in his home ballpark. With the line set at +360, there's fair value here, and given his current hot streak, Henderson is worth a play.

Trevor Larnach is heating up at the plate, raising his batting average from .225 to .250 over the past five days. He's clearly seeing the ball well, having launched 3 home runs in his last 6 games. Notably, all 7 of his home runs this season have come against right-handed pitchers. He'll face Orioles starter Tomoyuki Sugano, who has been solid overall, but has shown some vulnerability against left-handed hitters—allowing a .234 average and 5 home runs to them this season. Given Larnach's recent form and favorable matchup, we set his HR line at +500, making the +550 on BetMGM a value play.

I like a lot of scoring in this one. Tomoyuki Sugano has good surface-level numbers but he doesn't miss bats and he'll start getting knocked around. The Twins' offense is hot, too. On the other side, the Orioles carve up righties and Chris Paddack was crushed by them last year (5.1 IP, 12 H, 9 R). The two teams combined for 23 runs in a doubleheader Wednesday and there's more where that came from for Thursday.