The Brewers are looking to avoid a sweep after being shut out in the first two games of the series. While backing a rookie like Logan Henderson can be risky, he impressed in his MLB debut and has a 5-1 record in the minors this season. The Guardians' SP Gavin Williams has been solid at home this year but really struggled last season when pitching at home (0-8 SU and ATS). This is likely a big reason for the model leaning towards Milwaukee avoiding the sweep. We give Milwaukee a slight edge (51%) to win, and at +104, there is solid value on an upset play here.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been shut out in their last two games against the Guardians. On Tuesday, the Brewers' third and fourth batters went a combined 0-for-8. As a team, they are hitting just 10-for-63 with 18 strikeouts while trying to avoid a sweep on Wednesday afternoon. Gavin Williams has thrown 198 pitches over his last two starts and has pitched at least 195 innings in a two-game span twice during his career, but it hasn't gone well. If you combine the statistics from both of his following starts, Williams has allowed 15 hits and 10 earned runs in just six innings total. The Guardians have never seen Logan Henderson, an advantage for Milwaukee in a day game after a night game.