I was able to wait this one out and grab a slightly better number (at BetMGM), but it's certainly still a lot of juice to lay. With that said, everything lines up well here for Houston. The Astros have been great versus lefties, solid at home and recently were pretty great against Bubic. Contrast that with the Royals who struggle against lefties and who were shut down by Framber Valdez in late April. Bubic has been good but his level of competition rises tonight as he's been blessed with some easier matchups as of late (aside from Houston who rang him up for 4 runs through 5 innings).

Framber Valdez throws his sinker 48.4% of the time, his curveball 30%, and his changeup 16%. This season, Bobby Witt Jr. has excelled against these three pitches, achieving a .364 batting average and a .727 slugging percentage against sinkers, a .625 batting average with a 1.250 slugging percentage against curveballs, and a .412 batting average with a .588 slugging percentage against changeups. Witt may get at least five plate appearances as the road team and batting second. Additionally, the Astros had to rely on three high-leverage relievers on Monday. I also like his home run prop, especially after hitting a triple yesterday.

Framber Valdez throws his sinker 48.4% of the time, his curveball 30%, and his changeup 16%. This season, Bobby Witt Jr. has excelled against these three pitches, achieving a .364 batting average and a .727 slugging percentage against sinkers, a .625 batting average with a 1.250 slugging percentage against curveballs, and a .412 batting average with a .588 slugging percentage against changeups. Witt may get at least five plate appearances as the road team and batting second. Additionally, the Astros had to rely on three high-leverage relievers on Monday. I also like his home run prop, especially after hitting a triple yesterday.

The Kansas City Royals are surging with a 17-4 run to pull into a tie for second place at 25-18, 2.5 games from first-place Detroit. They're going to get it done today with lefty Kris Bubic, who has been stellar this season with no runs allowed in three of his last four starts. Left-hander Framber Valdez has had some troubles recently with the Astros losing four of his last five starts. Royals to win again.

The Royals have been red-hot, winning 17 of their last 21 games, but 10 of those 17 wins during that streak came at home. On the road, they're just 9-11 to start the season. Kris Bubic has been excellent in his last two starts (14 scoreless innings), but he gave up four earned runs in five innings the last time he faced Houston. Framber Valdez, despite a 1-2 home record this season, remains a strong play at home where the Astros went 11-5. We set the line at around -160 for the Astros to win today.