AJ Smith-Shawver was incredible last time out, going eight innings and striking out five Reds without allowing a run. He brought a no-hitter into the 8th inning and has shown a lot of promise so far. Smith-Shawver has yet to finish with less than five strikeouts in a start at MLB or AAA level this season, aside from this first of the year when he threw 77 pitches and struck out four Padres in four innings. The Pirates are a rather average strikeout matchup for right handers but at this price, I'll take a shot on the 5th strikeout. Smith-Shawver throws the splitter as his best out-pitch, and he'll need a good one here again today.

Sometimes teams get a bump when they fire their skipper but I doubt it here. Everybody loved Derek Shelton, especially the players, and this won't go well for a bad team. I also have a hard time believing what Andrew Heaney has been able to do thus far. The Pirates are 7-12 at home and Bravos have rounded into better form since a very slow start. The kid starting for them is legit.