Over the last 15 days, the Rays rank 27th in OPS (.612). They should struggle against Zack Wheeler, who has fanned 29 over his last three starts covering 19.2 innings. The Phillies, especially Bryce Harper, have underperformed thus far, but I like their chances against right-hander Drew Rasmussen. He has pitched worse than his 2.64 ERA indicates and has given up seven earned runs in his last two starts covering 10 innings. Look for the Rays to fall to 9-14 at their temporary home, George M. Steinbrenner Field.

Kyle Schwarber is a player almost always going to have model value to hit a HR when at +300 or higher against a RHP. Though he’s been dominant against left-handed pitchers this season, he still maintains a solid .870 OPS against righties in his career. Today he faces Drew Rasmussen, who’s good at preventing home runs and against left-handed bats, but he is pitching in a spring training park which favors hitters. Given the environment, Schwarber could be in a prime spot for a home run. We’ve set the line at +270 for Schwarber to hit a home run.

I like the pitching matchup with Wheeler on the mound against Rasmussen. Rasmussen starting to regresss a bit and I'm expecting a good day from Wheeler against this Rays lineup. The Phillies have also been putting up runs and putting runners on base, and in what is likely a great hitting environment, I expect them to put up enough runs to win the First Five.

Zack Wheeler hasn't had too many stiff strikeout matchups this season, going over this line in 6/7 starts, and he's yet to exit a start before the 6th inning, adding opportunities for punch outs. The Rays have also seen their strikeout rate jump lately, ranking second worst in MLB with a 25% K rate against right handers since mid-April. Wheeler features a 14.6% swinging strike rate, zone contact rate below 80% and Stuff+ over 111 on four of his pitches; he's a stud. Should be a hot one in Tampa and he's worked 100+ pitches the last couple outings so I'm going to keep it a half unit here but like the matchup regardless.