The Arizona Diamondbacks have had an impressive ability to stay in games. Over their last six games, five have been decided by two runs or less. Today seems like the perfect spot for the Diamondbacks bats to break out and give their pitching staff a cushion to work with. Ketel Marte returned from nearly a full month on the IL, in last night’s one run loss. Additionally, Aaron Nola at this stage of his career has a tough time building off a quality start. Tail the road team here in the Dbacks.

Despite being 9-7 SU on the road, Arizona is still hitting .234 as a team this season. However, they have a favorable matchup against Aaron Nola who owns a 7.15 home ERA and has allowed three runs, or more, in three of his five starts thus far. He’s been shaky and along with their bullpen owning a 4.70 ERA. Brandon Pfaadt has pitched well on the road, but Philadelphia performs well at home, hitting .272 with a .783 OPS, and Pfaadt is backed by a vulnerable bullpen, 4.50 ERA.

We continue to fade Aaron Nola. The league has XSLG of .453 off his knuckle curve and .696 off his 4-seamer - his top two pitches. He has a 7.15 ERA at home this season. The Phillies are 1-5 in his starts and their lineup has not been as advertised. The Snakes are 5-4 on road and this ballpark suits their power hitters.