The Rockies have lost nine straight games to bring their season total to 4-25. Their average score of 3.2 to 5.9 covers the run-line against. Chris Sale faced the Rockies last year and went seven innings and allowed no runs in a 3-0 victory. The Braves won his last two starts this season, with him allowing three runs total. The Braves are playing their best ball of the year on the 10-2 run that puts them one game under .500. They can make it to .500 today. Braves to win on the run-line.

Marcell Ozuna went hitless yesterday, but don’t let that 0-for-5 fool you—he squared up the ball multiple times with three batted balls coming off the bat at 95+ mph. Coors Field wasn’t as hitter-friendly yesterday, but the home run index (HRI) has jumped from 1 to 5 for today’s game, indicating better slugging conditions. Ozuna faces rookie Chase Dollander, a top-10 pick who has had a rocky start to his MLB career, allowing 8 HRs in his first 3 starts. While he avoided the long ball last time out, he still gave up 5 ER. With our model pricing this at +225, +310 on FanDuel offers excellent value.

The Rockies have high hopes for Chase Dollander, who has great stuff and was drafted ninth overall in 2023. He dominated in the minors but is struggling against major-league hitters. In his four starts, Dollanders has allowed a 19.4 percent barrel rate -- that's bottom-2 percentile -- and a 48.4 percent hard-hit rate. In his two starts at Coors Field, Dollander has allowed six homers and 10 earned runs in nine innings. The Braves have woken up and own an .811 OPS over the past week, third-best in MLB.

Are we picking on the Rockies? Damn right we are. Chase Dollander will get it together down the line but he doesn't belong in the Majors right now and especially not against this lineup in great form right now. Chris Sale has been bad for the Braves but against the worst lineup in MLB I like his chances in this one to provide some length and give the Bravos a chance to win this going away.