AJ Smith-Shawver has a been able to grab strikeouts at the minor and major league levels, with totals in this year's starts being 4,6,7,8,5. The 4.5 line is much closer to his floor than his ceiling here and he will face a Rockies team that's been worst in MLB at avoiding strikeouts. There isn't much experience on the Colorado side in facing him and the splitter has been the go to strikeout pitch for Smith-Shawver, and that pitch tends to play up in Coors Field's altitude. Look for him to nail a 5th strikeout and head up the ladder! Nearly 80 pitches last start as well, not too much worry in the way of a leash here.

The Rockies are 4-25 this season for a minus-1,939 profit margin. They score only 3.29 runs a game. The Braves have won eight of their last 10 games, and the bats have come alive, batting .303 over the last week. The Rockies have lost eight straight, and I think it's going to be a rough series with the Braves in town. Braves to win on the run-line.

Albies is one of the few Braves regulars who had a slow start at the plate the first two weeks of the season, and who has not broken out yet. I'm buying the dip for him in a great hitters park vs a terrible starter (9.30 ERA), whom he owns for his career (2 HR and a 1.273 OPS in 11 ABs). Braves lineup is humming and I expect plenty of ducks on the pond.

The Rockies have won 4 baseball games. Four. F-O-U-R. Rockies have lost 5 of 6 on the RL and they are starting a dude with an ERA around 10 in a ballpark where everything travels. I don't care much how the Braves patch their way through 9 innings on the bump. As we noted yesterday, since the first 2 weeks of the season and their slow start Braves are a top 3 slugging team in MLB, the HR form is back and they play gritty ball. Rockies look intent on being more inept than the '24 Pale Hose, and my gosh are we here for that. Unlike last year's White Sox, they don't have a Fedde or Crochet you have to worry about starting.