Pitching is keying this recent Mets uprising. The staff has allowed just nine runs in a 4-game uptick that's put New York atop the NL East. Tylor Megill is one of those in the rotation who is performing well with a 1.40 ERA, and not having allowed a run in two starts at Citi Field, and Carlos Mendoza didn't even have to use closer Edwin Diaz (spotless in his last three appearances) to close out the Sunday win over the Cards. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola (0-4, 6.65 ERA, 1.66 WHIP) is off to a slow start for the Phils, who have also struggled a bit on the road, where they've lost in five of their last seven. Play Mets on the Money Line.

I'm not about to make light of Pope Francis dying this morning considering I'm Catholic ... that's so amazing, though, maybe divine intervention he made it to Easter and then passed right after. But I think most Phillies/Reds/Cubs/Tigers fans are aware that anytime something major seems to happen in the world, the Phils' Nick Castellanos tends to have a big game. He's 4-for-10 with a double off Mets starter Tylor Megill career and the winds appear to be blowing out at Citi Field.

It will be 52° with 11 mph winds blowing out to left field at Citi Field today for the Phillies-Mets game. The Mets are 9-1 at home this season and come off a four-game sweep of the Cardinals. They’ve also won five of the last six meetings with the Phillies. The Mets have lost Taylor McGill's last two starts, but the real reason I bet this game was because of the ineffectiveness of Aaron Nola, who the Phillies have lost all four of his 2025 starts, including his last one against the Giants when he gave up seven runs. I'm on the Mets today.

FanDuel at +108. Aaron Nola does not seem quite right. His velocity on his fastball and knuckle curveball is down in each of his four starts, with opponents hitting .311 collectively off of both. His strike rate is down about 2% from his historical averages and his walk rate is up significantly. Now he gets a Mets lineup that’s always given him trouble. Nola has remained under this line in three of his four starts.

Pete Alonso has absolutely torched Aaron Nola in his career, hitting 6 home runs with a 1.117 OPS against the Phillies ace — tied for the most HRs Nola has allowed to any player with Austin Riley. Our model projects Alonso at +300 to go yard tonight, so +450 is a big edge. He’s off to a hot start this year, and with Juan Soto batting in front of him, Alonso should see plenty of good pitches — similar to the dynamic Soto created for Aaron Judge last year.

Aaron Nola might be heading to an IL stint or something but he clearly isn't right. Velocity is way down and the league is slugging .500 off his knuckle curve and .694 off his 4 seamer. Even when he was a stud, Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso pounded him. The Phillies pen is a total mess and Tylor Megill has been excellent. He has nice splits vs almost all key Phillies bats. The Mets are 9-1 at home have the the far superior bullpen, Alonso is in peak form and Soto is starting to quiet the ridiculous chirping about his slow start. Atmosphere should be payoff-like in Queens.