Doesn't it always seem like teams are very quiet offensively the game after a double-digit scoring output? The Reds plated 24(!) on Sunday in Baltimore, so they legit might be tired. And we know the Marlins can't hit much. Two good young pitchers in Nick Lodolo (2.31 ERA) and Max Meyer (2.63 ERA). Lodolo has allowed more than two earned runs in just one start this season, including two where he did not give up any. Always ideal to avoid the Cincinnati bullpen (and Miami's) when picking one of the team's games, which I know ALL too well.

Max Meyer has struck out at least seven batters in three of four starts and currently possesses a swinging strike rate above 13%. He'll face a Reds team scored 24 runs yesterday in Baltimore but they were in the bottom 1/3 of MLB for OPS against righties before that. They were also striking out at a top-10 rate (23%) and Meyer has used the slider on a majority of his strikeouts, which is a pitch this lineup has struggled to not whiff on. I'll back a 6th strikeout at this price.

Max Meyer has pitched at least 6.0 innings in three straight starts. The only time he didn't record 18 outs this season was in his first outing where he lasted 5.2 innings. The Reds are coming off a game where they scored 24 runs. I like to go against teams after a huge offensive outburst when they face a good pitcher the next time out. That is the scenario here. I expect a lower scoring game and think Meyer will record at least 18 outs.

Our model has Max Meyer projected for 5.7 strikeouts, so at +130 this is a strong value play. Meyer has gone over this number in 3 of 4 starts this season, including three outings with 7+ Ks. The line is likely influenced by the Reds' offensive explosion yesterday (24 runs), but teams often struggle after those huge performances — especially with travel involved. The Reds had to fly to Miami overnight. Now they face Meyer, a former No. 3 overall pick, who profiles more similarly to Bryce Miller — the last pitcher to shut them down (8 Ks) — than the recent pitchers they had success against. This is a solid price for a pitcher that has looked excellent as of late.

I know it feels like a lot to ask for considering Nick Lodolo has finished over this total only once in four starts, but that once was his last time out! More importantly, he's facing a Marlins team that ranks 24th in strikeout rate this season.

Nick Lodolo got off to a slow start with the strikeouts, but he fanned six in 4 2/3 innings last time out and now gets a Marlins team that is among the easiest to strike out in the league. In his three career starts against them, he's struck out 20 in 16 2/3 innings with a 2.16 ERA. He'll get to five here rather easily and the juice is worth it.