Getting through 6.0 innings at Steinbrenner Field is no easy task with the way the ball travels there. Ryan Pepiot has gone under this total in two of three. The one over was by half an out when he pitched 6.0 innings against the awful Rockies. He's allowed 17 hits and seven runs over 16 innings this season. I don't see Pepiot making it through 6.0 innings tonight in what could be a high-scoring game.

DraftKings. This is a high line for Ryan Pepiot, who has stayed under in two of three starts this season (with the one over against a terrible Rockies offense), and was under in 16/26 starts last season. Pepiot’s struggles the third time through the batting order seem to be resurfacing (.940 OPS allowed last season, and 1.167 so far this year) - with a fresh bullpen, I don’t envision Kevin Cash pushing his starter if he runs into trouble. The Red Sox do rank 10th in pitches per plate appearance, and should be able to drive up Pepiot’s pitch count. Toss in some hitter friendly conditions at Steinbrenner Field, and I don’t have Pepiot finishing six innings today. Would bet this down to under 16.5.

All the attention has gone to the minor league park in Sac Town but the one in Tampa is a launching pad, too. I don't think much of the Rays lineups sans Josh Lowe in a normal setting but they are 3rd in MLB in HRs at home and 8th in OPS at home and are averaging 5.2 runs/G at home. Walker Buehler is going through it and these Sox bats have been in a deep slumber for too long. This ballpark should help bring them back to life.

Trevor Story has already taken Ryan Pepiot deep in their brief history (1 HR in 2 ABs). He’ll face Pepiot again in one of the league’s most HR-friendly parks. The Rays' temporary stadium has an HRI (Home Run Index) of 8/10 tonight, and Pepiot has been shaky lately, giving up 4 homers over his last two starts. We priced this one at +490, so +600 is a solid number on Story.