The Rangers' Nathan Eovaldi certainly could go at least 6.1 innings as he went seven last time out for the fifth time in the past nine. But his road splits are significantly worse and is facing the team with the best home record in baseball. Also consider Texas was off Thursday, so every member of the bullpen is available. Finally, Big Nate threw 103 pitches last time out. Really need a reason NOT to bet Under 18.5 outs. Chris Sale is at the same number and him I don't think I will play largely due to the opponent (Nats) and the Braves having used their pen plenty Thursday. If you are wondering how I think (usually just a hamster on a wheel) ...

We are finally starting to see a shift in daily odds on the Texas Rangers. The defending World Series champions, are ten games below .500 and far off where expectations had them. Today though is a value spot against a Guardians team that is coming off consecutive poor performances against the Yankees. They managed just one hit in yesterday’s loss. Take the Rangers to hand the Guardians their third straight loss.

Nathan Eovaldi has pitched much better at home (3.16 ERA, .195 average against) than on the road (4.87, .286 average against) this season. Tanner Bibee is holding opponents to a .226 batting average at Progressive Field. The Guardians are ranked first in bullpen ERA (2.68), while the Rangers have the fourth-worst bullpen ERA (4.44) this season. Cleveland owns a +46 run differential at home, while Texas is -62 on the road.

The Guardians are not hitting of late but also have played their past six away (1-5). Their last home series, they fairly easily swept the Cubs -- and Cleveland has the best home mark in the majors. Tanner Bibee has not allowed more than two runs in any of his last five starts. He also threw 5.1 shutout innings in Arlington on May 13. Texas is 13 games under .500 on the road and Nathan Eovaldi's road splits are significantly worse. About the only advantage the Rangers might have is they were off Thursday and Cleveland wasn't and traveled.