Houston is the beat team in the AL West and I think every team in that division knows it. The Mariners certainly do, as their inept swing-and-miss lineup folds and their division lead shrinks. Stros are MLB-best 14-6 in last 20 and 20-10 last 30. Hunter Brown has had one bad start since early May and even when he was struggling he still fared well vs this bogus M's lineup. Stros much more athletic and better in field since moving Joey Loderfido in and Bobby Abreu out. Even without Kyle Tucker, the offense is alive. I expect their push to continue with a big series this weekend

An important series post All Star break will take place between the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners. The Astros are just two games back of Seattle, and will have Hunter Brown on the mound tonight. Brown pitched effectively his last start against Seattle, with nine strikeouts and gave up just one run. Take Houston, as Seattle continues their struggles at the plate.

I played the Astros at +112 on SuperBook, and there are other +110 options available. Seattle ranks 27th in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching and has the league's highest K rate by a wide margin. The extreme park shift combined with strikeout upside puts Hunter Brown in a strong position for success. On the other side, the Astros have one of the lowest strikeout rates and remain a top 10 team against right-handed pitching. I have Houston winning 52%, which means we should see -108.