This number is climbing and this is about as high as I would go. But Bal is great at home, the Cubs are bad on the highway, the Os pen is rested. And they have the better starting pitcher.

Cubs starter Jameson Taillon has been beaten up in Camden Yards. In his three starts there (all in 2022), he has posted a 5.11 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. The Orioles are a better offense now while much of the order has seen him a few times. The Orioles are 29-17 at home this season and the Cubs are 17-28 on the road with a terrible bullpen behind Taillon. The most likely outcome here is a multiple-run Orioles win, so let's grab the plus money on the run line (-1.5, +118).

The return to active duty for Dean Kremer was an unquestioned success for the O's last week in Seattle, as Kremer spun five shutout innings while allowing only two hits in a 4-1 win over the Mariners, as the Birds would go on to complete another successful road trip. Meanwhile, though the Cubs did recover to win a series vs. the fading Angels on the weekend, though note their extended decline since late May. Late change on the mound for Chicago with Jameson Taillon replacing Shota Imanaga, but the Cubs have still lost in seven of Taillon's last ten starts. Play Orioles on Run Line

We continue to grapple with some bad beats, so we’re going to take it down a notch and just play the ML. Baltimore is 29-17 at home and Chicago is 17-29 on road. The off-day following a West Coast trip should do Baltimore well. Chicago’s James Taillon has a career 5.11 ERA at Camden Yards, and plenty of Orioles hit him quite well during his ill-fated time in the AL. Taillon's 0.57 GB/FB rate could be a big problem for left-handed hitters in a tiny ballpark and an Orioles lineup loaded with left-handed power. His 31.4% fly-ball rate is well above the MLB average (24%). Baltimore’s Dean Kremer looked great in his return from the IL. Baltimore is 6-3 in its last nine at home.