Only a couple of 8.5s left. The winds apparently will be blowing in about 9 mph at Progressive Field. Seth Lugo has been unreal for Kansas City on the mound at 9-1 with a 1.72 ERA overall and 6-0 with a 0.86 ERA on the road. I don't know what has gotten into him, but Barry Bonds probably would like to get his source. Having spent most of his career in the NL, only a few Cleveland players have faced Lugo. Counterpart Triston McKenzie has a 3.31 ERA at home in seven starts and no Royals have great career splits off him. The Guardians bullpen is lights out and fully rested. I would not play this at 8, though.

This is a big number for Trison McKenzie even before factoring in how difficult of a matchup it is against an incredibly stingy and potent KC lineup. On the surface McKenzie has eclipsed 6 Ks in 5/11 games, however he has only thrown over 6 Ks in two starts, indicating that 5.5 is much more in line with McKenzie's ceiling. He is facing a Royals lineup that has the 2nd highest OPS since May 1st, paired with the 2nd lowest K Rate on the season against right handed pitching.

A divisional game that features a strong pitching matchup is on the docket for Tuesday between the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians. Early on it would not be a shock to see a low scoring game through the first 3 to 4 innings. Yet, look for both teams to do some damage the second and third times through their lineups. Additionally, the Guardians may challenge Seth Lugo’s strong start to the season, as they are 20-7 at home this year. Take the over in a game that has a possibility for extra innings.

Royals starter Seth Lugo is having a great year and deserves all the love he's been getting, but he isn't THIS good. His expected ERA is roughly two runs higher than his 1.72 ERA and he's due a correction. The Guardians are 20-7 at home and this is a good place for that correction to start happening. Guardians starter Triston McKenzie is a quality pitcher and he's backed by arguably the best bullpen in baseball. Even if this is a low-scoring affair, I like the Guardians to stay hot at home.