Chris Paddack has been hit-or-miss this season, allowing two earned runs or less in seven of his 10 starts but getting hit hard enough in the others to own a 4.39 ERA. He's up against a Royals team that is not only 14-6 in its last 20 but also avoids strikeouts at an elite rate against righties. Based on that rate, it takes facing 27 batters to get to five Ks, and Paddack has reached five Ks in just half of his starts this year. Righties facing the Royals have done it just 15 times in 46 starts, and I believe all those factors means the Under should be juiced higher here.

Brady Singer is the better pitcher in this game and we're getting a soft line mostly due to Kansas City being on the road. Singer does have some trouble with control from time to time, but he has the better metrics and he's got bats behind him that are very just fine against righties. I expect this offense to put up just enough to win the first five outright, but I'm going to build in the +0.5 run to capture the win if the first five ends in a tie.

That little wobble we saw from the Royals earlier this week, when they lost three in a row, seemed to disappear on Wednesday when Seth Lugo kept the Twins in check for a slump-ending 6-1 win. Back on course, KC now can gain a split of this midweek set at Target Field, even after pulling Brady Singer from today's start; instead, it will be Daniel Lynch (limited work, but who hasn't allowed a run in 7 IP this season) and a very capable bullpen looking to pick up where things left off last night, as the Royals continue to prove resourceful. Play Royals on Money Line