Low-scoring games seem to be happening a lot lately for the A's, now working on an 8-4 "under" run after last night's 3-0 win at the Trop. Save for a 10-run explosion in extra innings last Thursday vs. the Rockies, Oakland has scored three runs or fewer in 11 of its last 13 games. We'll see if rookie Joey Estes can help on the mound tonight, but Mark Kotsay won't hesitate going to his deep bullpen a bit early if needed, and the host Rays enter tonight having scored only 18 runs across their last eight games. Ryan Pepiot also capable of giving Kevin Cash five or so serviceable innings vs. the A's and their limited offense. Play A's-Rays "Under"

Getting a great price on Ryan Pepiot to go at least 5.1 IP today in a fairly tasty matchup against Oakland in Tampa Bay. Pepiot is having a nice season and will be making his second start since returning from a brief stint on the IL. If we remove Pepiot's last start where he was on a pitch count and his previous start where he exited early due to injury, he had gone at least 5.2 in 5/6 games. The A's are not a walk in the park from a matchup perspective like they have been in recent years, however they still rank in then bottom half in OPS against opposing right handed pitching.

Ryan Pepiot only threw 66 pitches last time out but if you stop there, you'll miss the story. It was his first start back from the IL and he only had a 45 pitch bullpen session as a tune up before that start. He was always going to be limited to around 70 pitches and he started the 5th inning before being pulled after allowing three baserunners. The confidence in the young pitcher is there from manager Kevin Cash, and Pepiot said he feels great after the last start. At this price of better than +150, it's well worth at least 0.5 unit as I see value on backing Pepiot as he should get near his normal amount of work today.

Ryan Pepiot got beat up in his return from IL last week, and while he threw just 66 pitches, I believe that was a product of his performance rather than a limited pitch count considering his injury was suffered on a comebacker that hit his leg. With his arm being fine, he has a solid chance to beat a 15.5 outs line that he topped in five of his six starts prior to the injury. It should help that he's facing a mediocre A's offense that has scored more than three runs just once in its last six outings. The books are mispricing the odds on this prop in my opinion.