The line has moved in New York’s favor. However, the Guardians are 4-1 in Triston McKenzie’s last five outings. Cleveland has the better lineup and bullpen while New York has been hitting .236 during day games thus far.

At the price of +114 here, I am finding value in fading Triston McKenzie on his strikeout prop of under 4.5 K's. He's dealing with a career low swinging strike rate and a zone contact rate better than 88%; both won't help him get much swing and miss. The Mets have been better against righties; they have a below league average strikeout rate, above average contact rate and see less pitches per plate appearance than most teams. McKenzie is also set to face five lefties, which has been his weaker side for K's.

This number has no business being at 5.5 as Triston McKenzie has been held under this line in 5/9 starts, is averaging only 7.61 K/9, and gets a tough matchup against the Mets. New York sports the eighth lowest K Rate against opposing right handed pitching. Meanwhile McKenzie's underlying metrics have plummeted to the tune of a 8.7% SwStr% compared to his career average of 12.2%. I'd also consider this spot at u4.5 with plus odds.