Today is a rare spot to back the Houston Astros on a favorable home price. On paper today’s pitching matchup is a big upper hand for the Milwaukee Brewers. Yet, Freddy Peralta has been more vulnerable over his last four starts, and is facing a red hot Astros team. Take Houston to overcome any early inning issues from pitcher Hunter Brown and win their sixth straight game.

This looks like the buy signal we have been waiting for with the Astros, who have surged with wins in five straight and seven of eight as they look to put their abysmal first month in the rear-view mirror. Pitching has excelled in the recent uptick and Hunter Brown is off of arguably his best effort of the season last week at Detroit when allowing only 1 run thru 5 IP, though that would be the only Houston loss in this current stretch. On the Brewers side, note Freddy Peralta has struggled in his last two starts on the road, allowing 8 runs thru 9 2/3 IP. Play Astros on Money Line

Hunter Brown has had a brutal start to the season and possesses an ERA of 7.79, in addition to a WHIP of 2.01. Despite the ugly numbers he has some solid strikeout numbers, albeit a fairly small sample. However it appears that he's even running hot/above expectations with strikeouts as well. Brown gets a tough draw against a Brewers lineup that is 14th in K Rate, on top of the 3rd highest OPS against opposing right handed pitchers.

I like this buy low spot on the Astros and Hunter Brown. I have Houston winning 54 percent of simulations which implies -118. The Astros are off to a slow start to the season but they're still 7th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching with the lowest strikeout rate in baseball. I have concerns with Peralta throwing his fastball over 50% of the time considering the .361xwOBA and double digit barrel rate.