San Diego hasn’t pitched well lately…but tonight at home v a Reds team that is battling the flu I like this ML price. Plus, the Reds SP is overvalued

Interesting spot here for the "Knuckleballer" Matt Waldron against a Cincinnati team that's been striking out the most in MLB over the last couple weeks. Their inexperience against Waldron and knuckleballs interests me, as I could see them striking out a few times in that first run through the order as they adjust to Waldron's style. At 4.5 here, this is a number Waldron has been around for most of his season so far, only finishing below four strikeouts in one start. While I don't think there is a massive edge numbers-wise, I'm going to take a shot at the over at nearly even odds. You can find this priced slightly better if you shop around as well.

We successfully faded Nick Lodolo in his last start and am surprised to see this outs prop once again come in at 17.5. Lodolo has failed to go 6 IP in 19 of 29 career starts, or 8/10 dating back to last season. Lodolo will face a patient Padres lineup that leads the league in walk rate against opposing southpaws. Look for Lodolo to run up another high pitch count before finishing the 5th.