Oakland's starting pitcher, JP Sears, has a 4.25 FIP and a 30.4% ground-ball rate. He prefers to pitch to contact, with only 16 strikeouts in 26.2 innings pitched and is coming off a season-high seven strikeouts against the Yankees. The Orioles offense is expected to perform well, as they rank third in OPS (.800) against left-handed pitchers. Baltimore ranks 12th in the fewest strikeouts per game.

The A's took the first game of the series and have a better pitching matchup today, but I think it's a great spot for the Orioles to right the ship. JP Sears has excelled his last three starts thanks largely to allowing just six hits in 17.1 innings but that luck runs out against an offense that's third in runs per game and tied for first in OPS+. Cole Irvin is coming off his best start of the season and gets to face a team that's next to last in runs per game after scoring two or three times in eight straight. This feels like 5-6 runs for the O's and another 2-3 runs for the A's, reflective of their season averages.

Don't sleep on the A's, a much-improved outfit from last season. Pitching in particular has been surprisingly good, with the bullpen more than holding its own, and starters like JP Sears (on the mound Saturday) doing things like posting an 0.51 ERA across his last three starts. Oakland, which rallied to win 3-2 in 10 innings last night, will be taking swing vs. former A's starter Cole Irvin, but with the offense only scoring 19 runs across the last eight games, and batting only .201 into this weekend, any fireworks shows at Camden Yards are going to have to wait. Play A's-O's "Under"

I consider JP Sears a very underrated pitcher and this is often reflected in his pitching props. Sears is off to a solid start this season and has eclipsed this outs prop in 3 of his last 4 starts, all without throwing over 91 pitches. I would consider the Orioles a tough matchup as they boast a good offense, however they average the third fewest walks per game and they often swing at pitches early. I like Sears chances of starting the 6th inning barring a catastrophic outing.