At first glance Brandon Pfaadt's numbers aren't overly impressive, however after taking a closer look under the hood, theyre actually quite impressive. Pfaadt had a solid rookie season but really came on strong as the season progressed and even ended up pitching 22 innings in the postseason where he performed admirably. Pfaadt had a solid season debut outing vs Colorado and then got roughed up by Atlanta in his only other start. Pfaadt gets a solid matchup today against a subpar Cardinals lineup that has a dreadful .288 wOBA versus opposing righties. I think Pfaadt is underrated and I like his chances of posting a quality start.

Steven Matz has racked up just three strikeouts in each of his first two starts and now faces the DBacks, who are currently bottom three in MLB for strikeouts vs left handed pitching. Small samples sizes are the name of the game this early in the season but Arizona is starting to accrue a sizable share of At Bats vs lefties and they have a strikeout rate under 15% so far. The DBacks have also been hitting lefties well, with an .820 OPS, which is good for top-five in MLB currently.

So here's how I bet MLB runlines: If I see a price that I believe is wrong, no matter what the number (within some reason), I'm playing it. The Diamondbacks should not be getting +1.5 in Friday's home matchup in my opinion, and they aren't getting it anywhere but FanDuel. This likely will flip to Cards +1.5 like everywhere else because the Snakes are -118 ML favorites at the site. So I'm throwing something down here regardless as this feels like an insurance gift.