The thought is that the D-backs missed their chance to completely flip this series when falling short in Game 5. Having now to win a pair at the Bank after being outscored their 15-3 in the first two games of this NLCS is a difficult if not near-impossible task, especially with Aaron Nola on the mound and throwing b-b's in the postseason, and shutting out the Arizona bats thru six innings of last Tuesday's 10-0 cakewalk. The Phils are 6-0 at home in these playoffs and Merrill Kelly has already felt the wrath when pounded for 3 homers in Game 2. Play Phillies on Run Line

The Phillies are in a prime spot to eliminate the Diamondbacks on Monday. They will start Aaron Nola, who has allowed two runs over 18 2/3 innings in the playoffs. They have also been excellent at home, going 6-0 there in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks will start Merrill Kelly, who had a 4.31 FIP and a 1.38 WHIP on the road during the regular season. The Phillies won’t let this opportunity go to waste.

This really isn't all that far from a 5-0 or, probably more realistic, 4-1 Phillies lead through these first five games. There's no doubt who the better team is. And now they get to play at home again, where the Phillies are 55-32 between the regular season and playoffs. Given the quick turnaround to seeing Merrill Kelly again in Citizens Bank Park, I'm wagering that the Phillies offense feasts (pheasts?). Aaron Nola is also on a great run and we don't have to worry about Craig Kimbrel getting the ball for important outs. The Phillies will win this thing by multiple runs, so I'm playing the run line (-1.5, +115) for better odds.

The Phillies have arguably the best home-field advantage in American sports right now, and Aaron Nola has been fantastic this postseason at 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA. I'd really like to see a Game 7, but it might take Merrill Kelly throwing seven shutout innings for the Snakes to do it, and I don't see the Phillies being shut down in their home park.