Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman (31.1 percent K rate) is set up for a strong outing against a Twins lineup that strikes out more than any other. Opponents batted .189 off Gausman in September, and he's working on a streak of 13 scoreless innings. Minnesota starter Pablo Lopez is no slouch, but the bullpen behind him isn't as trustworthy as Toronto's. Take the value on the Blue Jays, who were an excellent road team all season (46-35).

I love the Twins in game one and for the series. Pablo Lopez is an extremley underrated pitcher. His career barrel rate is 7% and his hard hit rate is 34%, rivalyling the best in baseball. Twins had the AL’s second-highest rate of runs per game in the second half, Back the Twins today!

This is so evenly matched that you can bet either team at +1.5 and I prefer the Jays. High price so we will do only a sprinkle. I'm not picking Toronto on the moneyline after all that team has done to me this year, so in theory I am not actually playing the Jays to win again. That said, they appear to have the better starting pitcher here in Kevin Gausman (very good day splits) over Pablo Lopez (struggled in final 3), and I think the better lineup when it's right -- and it got hot over the weekend. So many playoff games are decided by one run.

History is always meant to be broken. Tuesday, the Minnesota Twins they will have a chance to end an eighteen game postseason losing streak. They will see Kevin Gausman of the Toronto Bluejays who they had success against this season. In two starts Gausman lasted just 5 1/3 innings in one, and gave up six runs in the other. He has also failed to record a postseason win in his ten seasons in the big leagues. Take the Twins.

The Twins notoriously haven't won a playoff game since 2004, having lost 18 straight. Having Pablo Lopez start this one instead of Sonny Gray hurts. It's no death knell, obviously, because Lopez is capable of dominating, but he also had a 4.21 ERA at home this season. The Blue Jays got him for four runs in 5 2/3 innings when they saw him on May 27. Kevin Gausman is plenty capable of controlling a depleted Twins' lineup and, frankly, the Twins just aren't that good.