Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Guardians will make his return off the 60 day IL. His work load will obviously be reduced, but Dean Kremer of the Orioles has also pitched five innings or less in three straight starts. Furthermore, the Orioles bullpen surrendered three runs in the eighth inning for their second straight loss. Take the Guardians as the Orioles are just 4-6 over their last ten games.

Why are the Guardians favored? Former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber is on the mound but hasn't pitched in a few months so he won't be out there too long. Kinda kicking myself for Thursday's game for not taking Cleveland RL as I thought it might be a letdown game for the Birds off back-to-back huge playoff-type series. And it was a letdown, but at least the O's largely reset their bullpen. Now the AL East lead is down to 1.5 games, so I expect a bounce back tonight. Half unit due to price; I'm essentially buying the insurance. Orioles ML certainly wouldn't be a bad play and if the Guards sit, say, Jose Ramirez I'll come back and play that.

Baltimore has lost its last two games. The Guardians have activated Shane Bieber from the IL and makes his first start since July 7th. Bieber will be on a pitch count and faces the league’s best road team, hitting .283 with a .820 OPS against righties in September. Baltimore’s Dean Kremer has been in good form and has allowed three earned runs, or less, in six of his last eight starts.