It's time to back the Rangers once again, as they come in as short road underdogs against Pablo Lopez and the Twins. While Lopez has been fine, the Rangers hold the upper hand offensively and are likely to capitalize, especially in the late stages of the game against the Twins' available bullpen. Andrew Heaney is poised for success against a Twins lineup that has struggled with left-handed pitching, ranking just 26th in wOBA and showcasing the third highest strikeout rate, exceeding 25%. According to my simulations, the Rangers should have a 53 percent chance of winning, indicating that the line should be -113.

The Rangers have lost six consecutive games and will travel to Minnesota to begin a four game series against the Twins. Offense might be hard to come with Pablo Lopez is on the mound for Minnesota. The six year veteran is in the midst of a fantastic season and has been lights out in the month of August. Lopez will be opposed by Andrew Heaney who has been a mixed bag this year, however he has also pitched well recently. The Rangers will be motivated to snap their six game losing streak. Texas possesses the second highest OPS in the majors. Heaney has enjoyed solid historical success against the Twins as well. I'll back the dog here.

The Twins had to play Wednesday and blew out their bullpen in a crushing loss -- can't imagine closer Jhoan Duran at a minimum is available after pitching 1.2 innings. Twins starter Pablo Lopez has three straight scoreless outings but one was against Detroit and another vs. Pittsburgh, so I'm skeptical. He actually has been much worse at home overall. TEX LHP Andrew Heaney is 1-0 with a 2.22 ERA in five career starts vs. the Twins and his teams won all five. Yes, Texas has lost six straight but having Wednesday off might have done wonders. The SL model has the Rangers winning outright. Obviously I think that's quite possible or I wouldn't play +1.5.