Locking this price and pick in now. I will update analysis shortly.

Coming off a no-hitter is always tough to follow up. Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez will likely have a couple of jams tonight. Yet, Grayson Rodriguez has had the benefit of three straight starts against AL East opponents. Outside the division he has struggled and been susceptible to one huge inning for the opposition. Grab Houston.

The matchup between Framber Valdez and Grayson Rodriguez represents a significant starting pitching edge for the Astros, despite the road environment in Baltimore. The Orioles have had a fantastic season, but it has led to some inflation in the betting market. According to my simulations, I have Houston winning 59 percent of the time in this matchup, which means I price the line at -144. The return of Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez makes a substantial difference for the Astros lineup. While Grayson Rodriguez has performed better in his second stint at the MLB level, the fastball remains a significant concern with a .401 xwOBA and an average exit velocity of 93 MPH. On the other hand, Framber Valdez will find success with his curveball that drops 15 MPH from his sinking fastball. I like the Astros.