If you followed my first post, you saved 10 cents. Was at -135 for a short while at Caesars and we snagged that but apparently that won't come up on the system so it's now -145 for these purposes. Aaron Boone said he would probably give Aaron Judge one game off this weekend, and he has kept his promise despite Judge's homer in Saturday's win. I'm a bit surprised honestly. Obviously Judge will be available to pinch hit, but him alone out is enough for me to back the Birds at home. NYY's Luis Severino also has a 7.62 road ERA.

Dean Kremer is the ace of the Orioles and they’re 15-6 behind him giving him +10.65 units of profit. The Orioles close out the series strong going 13-4 on Sunday and they’re 25-15 after a loss. The Yankees have lost three of Luis Severino’s last four starts with him allowing 20 runs between the four. Orioles to win.

The Orioles and Yankees face off for the last time this season on Sunday night. So far, the series is deadlocked at 6-6. The Yankees are a much, much, much better team with Aaron Judge in the lineup, but I like the pitching matchup here for the better team. Luis Severino is bad and the Orioles embarrassed him last time they saw him. Orioles starter Dean Kremer only gave up one earned run in seven innings with 10 strikeouts last time he saw the Yankees. It's tougher sledding with Judge in the lineup, but I still like the Orioles here.

My model likes the Yankees to win the rubber game on Sunday Night Baseball. They're cashing in 56 percent of simulations. Aaron Judge homered and singled twice in Saturday's 8-3 win, his second game back since a lengthy layoff due to a toe injury. It was a good reminder of why the team is 10 games over .500 with him in the lineup. New York starter Luis Severino has put together consecutive respectable outings after a disastrous first half.