Philadelphia has won one of its last five games. The Phillies are hitting .204 with a .599 OPS and striking out 63 times over their last seven days. Baltimore has been hitting .294 with a .880 OPS against lefties on the road in July. The Orioles Dean Kremer has only allowed two earned runs in his last two road starts.

Since July 4, the Orioles are 12-3 and that has come against tough competition. They haven't played a sub-.500 team since June 18, actually. They've won six of their last seven on the road, too, so a trip to visit the defending NL champs won't phase them. The Phillies send lefty Christopher Sanchez to the mound and the Orioles are among the best in baseball against southpaws (sixth in wRC+). Orioles starter Dean Kremer has been inconsistent but is capable of a big outing and the Phillies haven't seen him this year. I love the road underdog here.

Orioles pitcher Dean Kremer's ground-ball percentage is 36.2%, while Cristopher Sanchez of the Phillies has a 54.4% ground-ball rate. Interleague home teams have a high winning percentage in Game 1 of a series. Starting pitchers with a GB rate of 50% or higher usually pitch well in Philadelphia. Take the Phillies.

We've got hot and humid conditions in Philly tonight, with the wind blowing out to center at 10 mph. Those kind of conditions will benefit the hitters by themselves, but the pitching matchup is a bonus. Baltimore's Dean Kremer may be 10-4, but he's 10-4 with a 4.80 ERA, and he has been smacked around by lefties all season. Philly's Cristopher Sanchez is off to a nice start, but Baltimore crushes lefties, and Sanchez has allowed a lot of home runs in a short amount of time.

Getting the Orioles as underdogs here is a gift. The Orioles have won 12 of their last 15 games, including seven of their last eight road games. The Orioles are 31-18 on the road this season, 2nd-best in MLB. On the other side, the Phillies have lost four of their last five games and fallen out of a Wild Card spot. The Orioles have dominated lefty pitchers as they are 22-10 this season when their opponent has a lefty starter. The Phillies have lost four of Cristopher Sanchez's last five starts. Take the Orioles at plus money.

The Phillies ended a four-game losing streak yesterday and take on the AL East-leading Orioles. Christopher Sanchez has pitched well but the Phillies have lost four of his last five starts. But somehow Dean Kremer is an underdog to him. The Orioles have won six of Kremer’s last seven starts. Orioles to win.