St. Louis is 2-4 on the road this season when Steven Matz starts. Matz owns a 6.03 road ERA. However, in his career, the Cubs Marcus Stroman is 1-8 SU when facing St. Louis, losing his last eight starts. The Cardinals have won five straight and are hitting .260 with a .802 OPS against righties on the road in July.

I like the Cardinals at +110 at Wrigley as I project Marcus Stroman to be overvalued in home starts like this. When I look at Stroman's pitch profiles I can't ignore the massive actual (.270) vs. expected (.330) wOBA splits on his sinking fastball. The gap on this pitch makes him one of the biggest regression candidates in MLB going forward into the warmer weather and lower air density where sinking pitches don't have the same movement. Matz has the exact opposite issue on his sinker where he's a positive regression candidate. I have the Cardinals winning 52 percent of simulations meaning this line should be -108 for St. Louis