Miami has lost its last three games. So far in July, the Marlins are hitting .207 with a .536 OPS against righties on the road. Miami's Jesus Luzardo shutout the Cardinals two starts ago but that was at home, where he pitches his best. Luzardo owns a 4.64 road ERA. The Cardinals have won five of it last seven games and are hitting .400 with a .980 against lefties at home in July.

Marlins lefty Jesus Luzardo has been outstanding lately, home or road, allowing two or fewer runs in five straight starts. That includes shutting out these same Cardinals in Miami for six innings on July 4. But St. Louis' bats have woken up -- the Cards homered seven times over the weekend -- and Luzardo will have a harder time Monday versus Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Willson Contreras and company. Miles Mikolas is in good form and faces a Marlins lineup that ranks 21st in OPS versus right-handed pitching.

This certainly hasn't been the Cardinals' year, but my model likes them in their series-opener against the Marlins. Miami came out of the break by getting swept in Baltimore, and I expect that skid to continue in St. Louis. The Cardinals are winning in 65% of my model's simulations.