Carlos Carrasco, 36, posted a 6.23 ERA in June as the Mets lost each of his five starts. In 21.2 innings, he allowed 27 hits and 13 walks. Look for the Diamondbacks to jump on Carrasco early and snap their three-game skid.

Arizona’s Ryne Nelson has struggled at home this season. He owns a 7.09 ERA and is this big of a favorite? The Mets are 4-0 in July and have Carlos Carrasco on the mound, owning a 4.91 road ERA. Neither team is hitting over .240 over their last seven days. But, when Carrasco starts as a dog on the road, his teams are 0-10 straight up.

Don't look now but the Mets are unbeaten in July. The Mets won their fourth straight in dramatic fashion Wednesday, beating Arizona 2-1 with a two-out, ninth-inning rally. In my simulations, the Mets are covering Thursday's run line in 85 percent of simulations, justifying the heavy juice.