New York’s Clarke Schmidt has already faced the Rangers once this season. He allowed five earned runs in five innings at Texas. Since that start, Schmidt has only allowed two or more earned runs twice in his last nine starts. Texas’ Dane Dunning relieved Jacob DeGrom, in that same game Schmidt started, and allowed two earned runs in 3.1 innings without Aaron Judge. This line is short and odd.

The Rangers are 32-20 against right-handed starters and RHP Clarke Schmidt has the Yankees 2-7 at home in his nine starts. Schmidt has pitched well and stayed Under in his last six starts, but it hasn’t equated to wins as the Yankees have lost his last five starts. The Yankees bats go quiet behind him and have scored two runs or less in each of his last five starts. Rangers to win.

I'm playing this line at -105 personally but would still play at -110 as I price this matchup at -122 (55% win to Texas side in simulations). The Rangers are one of the best teams in baseball against right-handed pitching, and now they get a really nice hitting environment against a below average starter. Clarke Schmidt has struggled with his sinker and cutter (.380 and .410 wOBA), and has issues walking left-handed hitters. This projects as nice spot for the Rangers to score runs.