The Yankees face off with Ben Lively and the Reds bullpen, after taking three of four from Toronto. The New York offense finally looks to be moving in the right direction and they get Lively today, who had an ERA of 4.09 in AAA last year. He also has 16 strikeouts and 10 walks through 27 innings at AAA this year, which is significantly higher than his K/BB rate in recent seasons. This could prove to be an issue, as the Yankees are walking better than 10% of the time over the last couple weeks vs RHP while also producing runs. Clark Schmidt should be serviceable and the bullpen, while heavily worked in Toronto, has been one of the best in baseball.

Just about all the intangibles favor the Reds, who didn't play Thursday while the Yankees did. New York hasn't had a day off in a few weeks and that might catch up to the bullpen today in a hitter-friendly park (and, hey, Aaron Boone if you wanted to give red-hot Aaron Judge tonight off, that would be fine). And the bullpen surely will be needed plenty behind Clarke Schmidt (1-4, 6.30 ERA). In three road starts, his ERA is near 9.00. The Reds are 13-8 on the runline at home.

If there was a "messy game" prop, that would be the pick. But instead we'll just take the Yankees to win. Clarke Schmidt probably isn't a starting pitcher, but this is the Reds we're dealing with here, and Ben Lively's getting the ball for them. If this game is going to be about which team can bludgeon the other to death, I'm backing the Yankees every time and twice on Sundays. New York is winning in 70% of my model's simulations.