The Mets come in on a 4-9 skid. They own the clear pitching edge with Justin Verlander starting, but the Rays lead MLB with an .876 OPS against right-handed pitching. Verlander has not faced a lineup like this in 2023. The Rays are going with a bullpen game led by Jalen Beeks. Tampa Bay has a 3.51 bullpen ERA, sixth-lowest in MLB. Play the Rays on the run line.

It’s a bullpen day for the Tampa Bay, with left-hander Jalen Beeks getting the start. The Rays bullpen has been solid all season owning a 3.51 ERA. New York sends out Justin Verlander who has faced rather easy lineups, the Tigers and Reds, in his first two starts. He now faces a top-5 team in Tampa Bay when facing righties, hitting .269 with a .841 OPS.

You can *kind of* understand why the Rays are the betting underdogs here. The Mets are starting Justin Verlander, and Tampa Bay's rolling out an opener. But do you really expect New York to win tonight? The Mets have been Metsing all over themselves in glorious fashion this season, and the Rays have, for the most part, looked like the best team in baseball. In a competition between the brutal efficiency of Tampa Bay and New York's habit of doing Three Stooges impressions, give me the Rays. Tampa Bay is winning in 62% of my model's simulations -- and covering in a whopping 80%.