I would play the Chicago runline if it was decently priced, but it's not (-175). Dylan Cease is the Sox's ace, but he looked really shaky at times this spring and the Astros have owned him. Houston is not the same without Jose Altuve and I'll take that into consideration over the next two months, but on banner night, with Mr. Quality Start Framber Valdez on the mound and Jose Abreu making his Houston debut against his former White Sox team, well, this is a very reasonable price on the champs.

I'm not quite sure why this line dropped to -135, but I like the Astros at this price. Framber Valdez led the Astros to wins in both of his starts against the White Sox last season. He'll have a tough opponent in Dylan Cease, but we all know what this Astros offense can do against even the most experienced pitchers. Houston has won six of the last seven home games against Chicago, and they've won 10 consecutive home openers. Take the home team tonight.

This is a matchup-based decision. The Astros enter the season as World Series contenders, while the White Sox were one of the most disappointing teams in baseball last year. That's impacting the market a little too heavily, considering Houston starter Framber Valdez does not miss a lot of bats, and if there's anything this White Sox lineup has always done well, it's mash lefties. The Sox are a live dog tonight.

Happy Opening Day, everyone. The Astros are raising a banner today, which should have the team feeling quite good. Jose Altuve will be out for a while with a broken thumb, but Framber Valdez is one heck of a pitcher and Jose Abreu should enjoy hitting against his former team. The Astros are winning in 62% of my model's simulations. I'm expecting a win from the reigning champs.