The Phillies will be amped up to play this game at home where they have yet to lose this postseason, but this play is mainly about Joe Musgrove. Musgrove has been dominant lately allowing just two runs in his last 24 innings pitched. He allowed just 1 hit against the Mets and pitched a quality start against the Dodgers. Ranger Suarez on the other hand has struggled to get deep in games, and that could prove a problem in extending the Phillies bullpen. The Padres struggle against lefties but Suarez has pitched just 3 and 3.1 innings in his last two starts. He only allowed 1 run in 3.1 innings to the Braves, but the bullpen was left very susceptible. Both bullpens have been pitching extremely well so I think whoever is winning going into the bullpens will end up winning this game, and I have to back the Padres and Joe Musgrove for that reason.

Ranger Suarez is good on the road but mediocre at home. He has a 4.27 ERA in 13 home starts with the Phillies going 8-5. In his last three starts, he has a 6.57 ERA with Philadelphia going 1-2. The Phillies like to say they are in the same situation as the NLDS against the Braves in which they came home 1-1 and closed out the series. But Padres starter Joe Musgrove is going to be a problem. San Diego has won his last three starts, and he’s allowed just three runs total in his last six starts. Padres to win.

I didn't touch either of the first two games of this series because I just can't seem to get a read on these clubs. Understand why the Padres are road favorites tonight as Joe Musgrove has been great of late, but this still feels like a virtual toss-up even with inconsistent Ranger Suarez on the bump for the home side -- it's the first NLCS home game for the Phillies since 2010. Should be wild. Philadelphia is 2-0 at home this postseason. It's pricy, but I believe it's a one-run game either way so I'll pay the -170 freight just to have a reason to watch/care tonight.