Cleveland's Shane Bieber has a record of 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA one career post-season appearance. He faces Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan who has a 8.31 ERA in four post-season appearances. Both teams have a top-five bullpen in the AL this season. Over the last seven days, the Guardians are 3rd in the majors in batting, .286, and 5th in OPS, .753. The Rays are in the bottom-five, during that span, in batting, .192, and a bottom-10 team in OPS, .630. Cleveland has a better wRC+, 105, as compared to Tampa Bay, 78, within those seven days as well. I'm on the Guardians.

Tampa Bay lost nine of its last 11 games while Cleveland enters the playoffs on a 24-6 tear. This isn't the same Rays team we're used to seeing; injuries have depleted their power. Shane McClanahan dealt with a neck problem late in the season and has only thrown 19 innings since Aug. 30. He fanned 12 batters in that span, a low rate for him, while allowing 11 runs. Everything points to the Guardians, who strike out at MLB's lowest rate. Lay the reasonable price.

Shane Bieber has made just one playoff start in his career, and he was absolutely rocked allowing 7 ER in 4.2 IP in the Wild Card game in 2020. Shane McClanahan has made just one playoff start and 6 playoff appearances. He pitched very well in his start but really struggled other than that. Bieber has also been pitching a lot better than McClanahan his past few turns in the rotation. The Guardians are 24-6 in their last 30 games while the Rays are 2-9 in their last 11. The Guardians have the slight bullpen advantage ranked 4th in the league to the Rays 7th ranked bullpen, I like the Guardians at home in Game 1.

Very tempting to take Under 6.5 runs here with Shane McClanahan against Shane Bieber and two excellent bullpens. However, the Rays were 4-12 in their final 16 games and an AL-worst 8-18 since Sept. 10 and I'm not sure how healthy McClanahan is as he made only two starts since Aug. 19 due to a neck issue and one wasn't good. Bieber has been spectacular since August. Tampa Bay was 11 games under .500 on the road.