Max Scherzer failed in his last start against the Braves and now the Mets are in a wild-card battle. The Padres won six of Yu Darvish's last seven starts and he didn’t allow a run in three of those. Darvish also beat Scherzer on July 22, 4-1, at New York. The Padres won the season series 4-2. The Padres are loose, the Mets are stressed by losing the division and I think it lingers. Take the Padres to win.

Max Scherzer posted a 1.67 home ERA this season, with 76 strikeouts in 64.2 innings. I trust him more in this spot than Yu Darvish despite Darvish going 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA against the Mets this year. After getting knocked around by the Braves last time out -- four earned runs allowed in 5.2 innings -- Scherzer should be primed for a dominant performance. He has held the current Padres roster to a collective .178 average. Look for the Mets, who went 54-27 at home and have the better roster overall, to take the opener.

Both Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish are very experienced in the playoffs. However, Darvish has only made one start in them since 2017 while Scherzer has won a World Series in that time. Scherzer has pitched very well in the playoffs, and he hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last 13 postseason appearances. Yu Darvish pitched a quality start in his playoff start in 2020 but he really struggled in the playoffs before that. The Mets have the bullpen advantage ranked 10th to the Padres 14th ranked bullpen. They also have the lineup advantage ranked 3rd in the league in wOBA against righties while the Padres are ranked 17th in wOBA against righties. The Mets did lose both series against the Padres this season going 2-4 overall so I think that and the public’s overreaction to the Mets losing the division are the reasons why this line is even close. I like the Mets to bounce back at home.

This ML seems a bit low. Great pitching matchup between Yu Darvish and Max Scherzer. If this were in San Diego, I'd pass because Darvish has been a monster at home. Not quite the same away. Darvish's career postseason numbers are not good. Scherzer's are. The Mets have the better lineup even without Starling Marte.