Two of their first three games have gone under. This season, Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes is 4-3 with a 2.82 ERA at home while the LA Dodgers Andrew Heaney is 0-0 with a 2.38 ERA on the road. Over the last seven days, the Brewers are last in the league in OPS with a .494 and in team batting average with .158. They also have the second-worst batting average against lefties this season with a .218. Mookie Betts also gets the day off for the Dodgers. Play the Under.

My numbers love the Dodgers in Thursday's matchup against the Brewers. My projection model has the visiting Dodgers winning nearly two-thirds of the time, providing a massive value at the near pick'em price. Projected starter Andrew Heaney has an ERA of 2.38 in three road starts this season and Los Angeles has won four of his past five outings.

Gonna play this Thursday game now because I'm surprised the Brewers are ML dogs behind reigning NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes (I'm not sure it will close that way), so I'll happily take the runline gift even at -160. Are the Dodgers the better team overall? No doubt, but Burnes is a ton better than LA pitcher Andrew Heaney, although Heaney does have good numbers in limited action. It's the end of a seven-game road trip for Los Angeles, so it feels like a bit of a flat spot and perhaps where Dave Roberts rests one of his key players (specifically Mookie Betts or Trea Turner).