Bit pricy at -170, but the Yankees just put Giancarlo Stanton on the injured list so clearly the Mets' chances of covering +1.5 if not winning outright got better as the NYM pitchers can work around Aaron Judge a bit easier. Taijuan Walker is on the mound for the home side, and he has given up one run or fewer in five of his last seven starts and three straight outings at home. Walker has a 1.89 ERA in 19 innings in July and a 1.50 overall home ERA in 36 innings. Yanks lefty Jordan Montgomery is winless in his last six appearances.

Jordan Montgomery has pitched well lately and throughout the season. He also doesn’t pitch noticeably worse on the road. The Mets struggle with lefties, ranking just 22nd in the league in wOBA against lefties in July. They just traded for lefties Daniel Vogelbach and Michael Perez but they should be negated by the lefty Montgomery, if they're even in the lineup. Taijuan Walker has actually been dominant, but the Yankees have the third-highest wOBA against righties in July. Both teams have good bullpens -- the Yankees' is actually pretty thin now that they’re missing Michael King, but the rest day yesterday should still set them up. I like the Yankees to take Game 1 of the subway series.

My model says the Yankees cover the spread in almost 40 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value with them at this number. The Yankees got back on track after losing three of their first games following the All-Star break, posting a 6-0 victory at Baltimore on Sunday. Look for them to continue their dominant ways against Mets RHP Taijuan Walker, who is 1-3 with a 4.06 ERA in six career starts versus the Bronx Bombers. Yankees sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are a combined 6-for-17 with three homers and six RBIs against Walker. Take the Yankees -1.5 runs at +150.