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Thu 07/14 | 4:10 PM UTC | Miami
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Pittsburgh Pirates 61-100, -1557 ML
PIT +1.5-165
PIT +135
Over 7.5-105
Miami Marlins 68-93, -2658 ML
MIA -1.5+140
MIA -160
Under 7.5-115

Expert Picks

MLB | Pittsburgh 2 @ Miami 1 | 07/14 | 4:10 PM UTC

Pittsburgh +1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: While I love baseball, I normally wouldn't be caught dead watching a Pirates-Marlins game in July, but I did yesterday and it was highly entertaining -- and got lucky that Miami rallied as I backed the Fish. But wow that team can't hit a lick without the likes of Jazz Chisholm, Jorge Soler and Garrett Cooper. Today, No. 1 catcher Jacob Stallings (not that he's hitting much) and Joey Wendle are both sitting as well. The Bucs have Kevin Newman back in the starting lineup (he didn't start Wednesday but pinch-hit). Pittsburgh could easily be going for the four-game sweep. I'll take it on the RL at -145 behind former Marlin Zach Thompson. He has recorded a 2.66 ERA in his last four starts on the road while also allowing two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts overall. He just doesn't go deep into games. Miami's Braxton Garrett has a 5.63 home ERA.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+6018 368-212-1 IN LAST 581 MLB PICKS
+339 9-4 IN LAST 13 PIT ATS PICKS

Season Splits

61-100, -1557 ML
68-93, -2658 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
42%
38-52, +18
43-45, -541
48%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
38%
18-29, +37
22-19, -217
53%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
38%
29-46, -68
25-13, +482
65%
When Line was +125 to +155
MONEY LINE
When Line was -180 to -150
31%
9-20, -740
4-5, -252
44%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
37%
17-28, +61
18-10, +236
64%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
47%
9-10, +59
22-13, +366
62%
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
33%
8-16, -366
30-18, +689
62%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
46%
31-36, +710
31-34, -476
47%
vs MIA
HEAD TO HEAD
vs PIT
50%
2-2, +84
2-2, -81
50%
when Zach Thompson starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Braxton Garrett starts
40%
6-9, +28
4-4, +54
50%