Like Larry, I got burned by the Twins last night but like him, I'm going back to them this afternoon on a cheap price even though MLB batting leader Luis Arraez is not in the starting lineup. The Brewers are without Christian Yelich and Hunter Renfroe. The Twins appeared to have the starting pitching edge last night and do even more so here with Joe Ryan (6-3, 3.09 ERA) over Aaron Ashby (2-6, 4.52 ERA). Ashby has been awful on the road, going 1-5 with a 5.16 ERA. Ryan is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in six day starts. Minnesota is 13-5 in its past 18 after a loss.

Aaron Ashby has really struggled since being inserted into the rotation and most of those starts have been on the road. The Twins actually haven’t been great at hitting lefties lately ranked 19th in the league in wOBA in the last 30 days but they do have their full bullpen available. Joe Ryan doesn’t necessarily get deep into games, but he does give them quality innings when he’s in. Christian Yelich is out again after getting scratched before the game yesterday while the Twins have their full lineup in besides Luis Arraez, but he can at least pinch hit.

I lost on the Twins on Tuesday but am coming right back with them and fading Milwaukee's Aaron Ashby. He's 1-5 with a 5.16 ERA on the road. Look for Minnesota to bounce back in this early start behind Joe Ryan; he's held opposing batters to a .194 on-base percentage at home.

These teams wrap up a quick two-game set from Target Field on Wednesday with a matinee, and my model forecasts the underdog Brewers to win behind Aaron Ashby. Twins starter Joe Ryan has better overall numbers but has just one victory in his past five outings. The best play is Milwaukee at +118 as the Brew Crew win 56 percent of the time.