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Fri 05/06 | 1:40 AM UTC | Seattle
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Tampa Bay Rays 43-37, -470 ML
TB -1.5+125
TB -140
Over 7-105
Seattle Mariners 40-42, -293 ML
SEA +1.5-145
SEA +120
Under 7-115

Expert Picks

Tampa Bay 4 @ Seattle 3 | 05/06 | 1:40 AM UTC

Seattle +1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: I get why the Mariners are underdogs because they enter this series having lost seven of eight and are not hitting the ball. That said, those were all on the road. Seattle is 7-2 at home and batting .276 with an OPS of .829 at T-Mobile Park compared to .204 and .610 away. Reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray has a 3.00 ERA in two home starts with an opponents' batting average of .209 and he was very good vs. the Rays last year while with Toronto. Tampa Bay is just 3-13 in Seattle since 2016. The Rays' best reliever, Andrew Kittredge (1.46 ERA, 4 SV), surely won't be available after pitching each of the past three games. Seattle RL at -160.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+1651 205-129 IN LAST 334 MLB PICKS
+1540 21-5 IN LAST 26 SEA ATS PICKS

Season Splits

43-37, -470 ML
40-42, -293 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
60%
15-10, +7
12-13, -269
48%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
66%
6-3, +177
7-2, +301
77%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
63%
14-8, +111
6-12, -566
33%
When Line was -150 to -120
MONEY LINE
When Line was +101 to +131
66%
6-3, +144
4-6, -154
40%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
83%
5-1, +281
2-1, +88
66%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
55%
5-4, -46
4-8, -415
33%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
63%
14-8, +111
4-8, -415
33%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
57%
11-8, -26
7-12, -636
36%
vs SEA
HEAD TO HEAD
vs TB
66%
2-1, +34
1-2, -87
33%
when Shane McClanahan starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Robbie Ray starts
40%
2-3, -192
3-2, +22
60%