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Sun 08/01 | 11:08 PM UTC | St. Petersburg
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Boston Red Sox 63-43, +1549 ML
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Over 8.5-120
Tampa Bay Rays 63-42, +1322 ML
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Under 8.5+100

Expert Picks

Boston 2 @ Tampa Bay 3 | 08/01 | 11:08 PM UTC

Boston +1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: Boston is certainly more than capable of winning the ESPN Sunday night game (as can be seen by three others picking the Sox outright, which now makes me nervous) but we'll take the runline safety net at -135. Nick Pivetta has been much better on the road (3.21 ERA) and yet to allow a run in 11.2 innings vs. the Rays. Tampa's Shane McClanahan has been a bit worse at home.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+2315 147-94-6 IN LAST 247 MLB PICKS
+470 8-3 IN LAST 11 TB ATS PICKS
+247 6-3 IN LAST 9 BOS ATS PICKS

Season Splits

63-43, +1549 ML
63-42, +1322 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
59%
63-43, +1549
63-42, +1322
60%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
58%
30-21, +1108
33-20, +420
62%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
61%
27-17, +1575
40-21, +596
65%
When Line was +135 to +165
MONEY LINE
When Line was -175 to -145
75%
6-2, +620
12-8, -16
60%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
60%
18-12, +1094
27-12, +534
69%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
50%
16-16, -99
18-10, +672
64%
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
61%
19-12, +578
42-26, +738
61%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
60%
45-30, +1036
47-28, +1430
62%
vs TB
HEAD TO HEAD
vs BOS
50%
4-4, +40
4-4, -75
50%
when Nick Pivetta starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Shane McClanahan starts
70%
14-6, +673
8-7, -63
53%