The Reds' Jeff Hoffman has not pitched in the majors since May 26, owing to a sore right shoulder. He got hit hard Friday in his final minor-league rehab start, in Class A. He sports a 7.43 career ERA versus the Mets. Back the Mets, behind Marcus Stroman, to improve to 17-7 in their last 24 games in Cincinnati.

The Mets appear to have the edge at pitcher with Marcus Stroman (6-8, 2.79). He hasn't allowed more than three earned since May 16. Then again, he hasn't won a game since June 12 and is a bit worse on the road and during the day. New York also is resting JD Davis and James McCann. Cincy's Jeff Hoffman (3-4, 4.61) is being activated off the injured list and will start in the bigs for the first time since May 26. He is 3-1 with a 3.09 ERA this year at home and was quite good in his rehab starts. I probably lean New York to win but getting the home Reds on the RL (-128) at a shorter price than Mets ML (-135) makes that better value.

Reds RHP Jeff Hoffman is likely excited about Wednesday's game, given that it falls perfectly into his preferred splits. He is better at home, better during the day and has maybe the craziest platoon splits I've ever seen. He has a 0.89 ERA against left-handed batters and an 8.27 ERA versus righties. Lucky for us, and Hoffman, the Mets normally only have Pete Alonso, J.D. Davis and James McCann hitting from that side of the plate. Opposing him is RHP Marcus Stroman, who has been consistent and hasn’t allowed more than three runs since mid-May.

Should be an edge for the pitchers with the shadows and the quick turnaround for this getaway Wednesday game. Mets starter Marcus Stroman has a 2.79 ERA on the season and has not allowed more than three earned runs in an outing since mid-May. Around 65 percent of my model simulations land Under this big total of 10.5 runs.