The Dodgers lose Gavin Lux but they get Mookie Betts back in the lineup, and he is starting to heat up. Kevin Gausman has been very good this season but he did get the loss last time he faced the Dodgers. Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford are on the IL despite Buster Posey’s return and the Giants are worse on the road. The Dodgers have a chance to take the division lead tonight, I like them at home.

The Giants have managed just two runs in their past two games, and while they will get Buster Posey back tonight, All-Star shortstop Brandon Crawford has joined the likes of Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria on the injured list. L.A. does have Mookie Betts available -- UPDATE: Betts was just scratched -- but not Gavin Lux (IL) or AJ Pollock (resting). Thus, this smells like a pitchers' duel between Kevin Gausman ((9-3, 1.73) and Tony Gonsolin (1-0, 2.13). I'll be using the alternate total of 8.5, though.

The Dodgers should be without Mookie Betts and Gavin Lux as they face the dominant Kevin Gausman. The Giants have scored one run in each of their past two games, plus they're facing Tony Gonsolin (2.13 ERA). Look for an intense, low-scoring game and go Under.

My model says the Dodgers win in over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value with them at this number. Los Angeles has had the upper hand against the Giants this year, winning six of the nine contests. San Francisco was held to one run in each of its back-to-back losses at St. Louis over the weekend and scored a total of three times in a pair of defeats at Los Angeles late last month. Expect the Dodgers to maintain control of the season series.